Projections / starters, 80+ first-half IP

First-half ERA vs OOPSY's rest-of-season call

Every starter with at least 80 innings before the break. Horizontal is their ERA in the first half, vertical is what OOPSY projects the rest of the way. The diagonal is where the projection matches the first half. Both axes run so that better pitching sits toward the top right. Dots above the line are pitchers OOPSY expects to improve; dots below it are ones it expects to fall back. Colour is first-half strand rate (LOB%), the main driver of the gap.

Low LOB%High LOB% Above the line = projected to improve, below = projected to fall back

Data: FanGraphs actuals and OOPSY DC (RoS)@jack_mariners